GPT-5.1 منتشر شد: نسل جدید هوش مصنوعی که هم باهوش‌تره و هم واقعی‌تر!

Here’s the clean, no-nonsense explainer you want.

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play)

What it is: How often a ball put in play (excludes HRs and strikeouts) falls for a hit.

Formula (hitters or pitchers):

BABIP=H−HRAB−K−HR+SF \text{BABIP} = \frac{H – HR}{AB – K – HR + SF} BABIP=AB−K−HR+SFH−HR​

• H = hits, HR = home runs, AB = at-bats, K = strikeouts, SF = sac flies.

Why it matters:

• Captures contact quality, defense, ballpark, and luck.
• League average hovers around .۳۰۰ most seasons.
• Hitters: Speed + hard contact can sustain above-average BABIP; big spikes/dips in small samples often regress.
• Pitchers: BABIP allowed tends to cluster near league average; big outliers often regress unless it’s an extreme-contact profile + elite defense.

Quick reads:

• >.330: strong contact/speed or some good fortune.
• .۲۷۰–.۳۰۰: typical range.
• <.270: weak contact/slow footspeed or bad luck/elite defenses faced.

wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus)

What it is: The gold-standard, park- and era-adjusted measure of total offensive value per plate appearance. It tells you how much a hitter contributed to run creation vs league average, on a ۱۰۰ = average scale.

Scale:

• ۱۰۰ = league average
• ۱۲۰ = 20% better than league average
• ۸۰ = 20% worse than league average
• ۱۴۰+ = star/elite seasons

How it’s built (conceptually):

1. Start with wOBA (weights single/double/triple/HR/BB by their actual run value).
2. Convert to wRAA (runs above average).
3. Adjust for park and league/season effects.
4. Normalize so ۱۰۰ = average → that’s wRC+.

Why it’s great: It compares hitters fairly across parks (Coors vs. Safeco) and seasons (offense-heavy vs dead-ball-ish years). It also captures more than batting average—walks and extra-base hits count properly.

Limitations (both stats):

• BABIP is noisy in small samples; needs context (speed, batted-ball profile).
• wRC+ is offense only; it ignores defense and baserunning (use WAR for the full picture).

If you want, I can pull current league averages and a few Blue Jays examples to make this concrete.

Nice, nerd stat time 🧢

I’ll do each one in plain English, then add a bit of context.

۱. BABIP – Batting Average on Balls In Play

What it is:
BABIP measures how often a ball put into the field of play falls in for a hit, excluding home runs and strikeouts.

Formula (conceptually):

BABIP = (Hits − Home Runs) ÷ (At-Bats − Strikeouts − Home Runs + Sacrifice Flies)

So:

• It only cares about balls that fielders can make a play on.
• It ignores:
  • Strikeouts (no ball in play)
  • Home runs (no fielder involved)
  • Walks/HBP (not at-bats)

Why it matters:

• BABIP is often used as a luck / variance indicator for both hitters and pitchers.
• League-average BABIP is usually around .۲۹۵–.۳۰۰.
  • Much higher than .300? Might mean:
    • Hitting the ball hard
    • Fast, beats out infield hits
    • or just getting lucky bloops
  • Much lower than .300? Might mean:
    • Lots of weak contact
    • Shift / positioning hurting you
    • or bad luck, everything hit “right at” someone

How people actually use it:

• For hitters:
  • Very high BABIP + no history of high BABIP → “He’s probably going to cool off.”
  • Very low BABIP + solid skills → “He might bounce back.”
• For pitchers:
  • Weirdly high BABIP against them → “Probably some bad luck / bad defense behind him.”

۲. wRC+ – Weighted Runs Created Plus

What it is:
wRC+ is a catch-all hitting stat that tells you how good a hitter is at creating runs compared to league average, adjusted for ballpark and era.

• ۱۰۰ = league average
• ۱۲۰ = 20% better than league average
• ۸۰ = 20% worse than league average

So if a player has a wRC+ of 135, that means:

“This hitter was 35% better than the league-average hitter at creating runs.”

What goes into it (conceptually):

• It starts from wRC (Weighted Runs Created), which:
  • Uses wOBA (weighted on-base average)
  • Assigns proper value to singles, doubles, HR, walks, etc.
  • Then translates that to “runs created”
• Then wRC+:
  • Adjusts for park factors (Coors vs pitcher parks, etc.)
  • Adjusts for run environment / era
  • Normalizes everything so ۱۰۰ is always league average

Why it matters:

• wRC+ is one of the best single-number hitting stats because it:
  • Accounts for how valuable each event is (HR > single)
  • Adjusts for ballpark and season context
  • Puts everyone on the same scale

Rough ranges:

• ۷۰ and below – bad bat
• ۸۰–۹۰ – below average
• ۱۰۰ – average
• ۱۱۰–۱۲۰ – solidly above average
• ۱۳۰–۱۴۰ – All-Star level
• ۱۵۰+ – MVP-type monster season

TL;DR

• BABIP: “How often do balls in play fall in for hits?”
  → Used to sniff out luck vs true skill in contact results.
• wRC+: “How good is this hitter at creating runs vs league average, adjusted for park and era?”
  → ۱۰۰ = average, every point above/below is % better/worse.

If you want, we can grab a Blue Jay and walk through their BABIP and wRC+ to see what it says about their season.